Impact of Urban sprawl would reduce potential carbon storage in Pakistan

Abstract

In recent years, carbon emission from land use change have become major global issues. How land use and land cover change affect carbon sequestration is important for carbon neutrality and climate change mitigation. This study evaluated the effect of urbanization on land use and the carbon cycle in Pakistan in the years 2050 and 2100. The outcome was achieved through the mapping of land use and land cover for the years through geosimulation. Using Geographic information system (GIS) to analyzed the territorial dynamics in Pakistan Land use change data and soil organic carbon density data (SOCD) to assets the country’s carbon stocks. The study noted an increase in farmland and urban area and a reduction in forestland, shrub land, and barren land areas during the study period. In 2050, the estimated areas for urban land under the four scenarios are (A1B 25,800 ~ A2 26,090 ~ B1 19,664 ~ B2 10,782 Km2). It is expected to rise to (A1B 26,269 ~ A2 36,449 ~ B1 19,718 ~ B2 14,339 Km2) in 2100. Carbon loss will also increase throughout the country. carbon loss is projected to rise from (A1B 24,034,560~ A2 24,405,760~ B1 16,180,480~ B2 4,811,520 t) in 2050 to (A1B 24,634,880~ A2 37,665,280~ B1 16,249,600~ B2 9,364,480 t) in 2100.This is attributed to economic development in the country, which increases industrialization in urban areas, we found that the carbon in major areas of Pakistan will be reduced in Punjab province of Pakistan, the predicted annual carbon loss will be increased (9.31 t to 13.28 t).This study provides important information that can be used by the government in conjunction with land managers to establish effective strategies that will enable sustainable management and protection of natural resources in the country.