Analysis of Time Series and Forecasting for Polio Disease (A Case Study of Pakistan)

Abstract

A series of time measurements usually performed on a previous time period which consists of a series of data points. The threat of natural disaster also plays a role in the delay of the complete eradication of polio. For example, Pakistan is prone to earthquakes and heavy rains of the monsoon. The 2010 floods in Pakistan hit 20 million, most were in the lower socioeconomic percentile. Besides the cases of measles, cholera and dengue fever, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported an increase in polio cases. In November 2010, Pakistan accounted for about 62% of all cases of polio endemic countries, with most new cases to the areas affected by flooding. The secular trend of a long-term movement that has persisted for many years and which indicates the general direction of change of the values observed is the disease of polio in Pakistan. The value of intercept “a” is acquired 17136 and “b” the slope is calculated by (-84.24), resultantly the trend line equation is obtained as =17136+(- 85.24)x. moreover the co-efficient of determination is 0.476.it is concluding that the polio cases are decreasing by (- 85.24) in each year on annually basis and Y estimated values are agreed with total original values.