STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TIME SERIES DATA FOR THE PRICES OF MILK, OIL, DESI GHEE AND VEGETABLE GHEE IN BALOCHISTAN

Abstract

The Prices of Oil, Desi Ghee and Vegetable Ghee are compared with the Price of Milk, using Ratios, Growth Rates, Index Numbers, Regression and Correlation Analysis, from1973 to 1994. Econometric models are also fitted for forecasting their Prices. It has been observed that the Prices of Milk, Oil, D. Ghee and V. Ghee have increased by 510%, 540%, 450% and 370%, respectively. The change is maximum for Oil and minimum for V. Ghee. Poly-3 is the best curve for predicting the Prices of all items, while Exponential curve is the 2nd for Milk and D.Ghee. The maximum increase in the Prices occurred in 1974 and the minimum in 1976 (the effect of devaluation of currency). Changes in Prices of all the items are explained more by their previous rates than with time (not as for Wheat Floor, Beef, Mutton, etc) [3]. The Prices of D. Ghee and V. Ghee are strongly correlated with those of Milk and Oil, respectively.