Estimation of Welfare Loss in Rural Households and Intervention Gap during Flood 2010 in Sindh

Abstract

Present study is an attempt to estimate welfare loss in selected flood affected districts of Northern Sindh (Qamber Shahdadkot, Kashmore- Kandhkot, Jacobabad and Shikarpur). Ordinary Least Squares Method is used to estimate household demand equations of the selected items from household expenditure survey. The study is unique in its approach of measuring welfare loss using household data. Previous studies have applied either various risk measurement approaches to measure loss of lives. In addition some studies have used cost measurement approved to investigate the issue. The estimated loss in all selected districts is approximately PKR 61.16 billion. The assistance provided to flood affected population in cash and kind under phases of rescue, relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction was equal to PKR 47.2 billion. Total identified gap in intervention is of 22.8% on average or PKR 15 Billion. Given the average family size and number of households in rural areas of Sindh, the household loss is averaged up to PKR 11703.