Linkages among Climate Change and Productivity of Wheat in Sindh Province of Pakistan

Abstract

Climate Change is an assorted setback that shaped many more effects linked to environment and economic distress in Pakistan. The research is intended to find out those sound effects on wheat productivity and its importance in Sindh province of Pakistan. The present research is to estimation of dependent variable i.e. wheat yield/productivity on the basis of the known or fixed values of the explanatory variables (temperature and precipitation and others were agricultural credit, wheat procurement Price, fertilizer, land and water availability) with relation to the climate change impact. A time series data of last twenty (20) years (1994-95 to 2014-15) has been processed by using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Pakistan is on 06th position of wheat production, 8th place of area except 59th in terms of productivity/yield and that is the big threat to agricultural productivity due to rapid climate change pattern. The average wheat yield of country is approximately 2504.58 kg ha-1. The results and predicted values after the analysis show that the rise in temperature will decrease the wheat productivity. The coefficient for the precipitation level and temperature were depressing as well as insignificant signifying negative link between planting phase and wheat productivity. The attended R square significance for the regression equation was 0.2731, engaging that factors and comprised in the equation have explained at the minimum 27 percent deviation in wheat productivity. The estimated values of regression parameters such as Y-intercept, temperature and precipitation level were calculated as -0.235 and -0.670532 respectively. It was observed comprehensively that the implication of climate change is the key threat to food security and its growth.