Abstract
A climate change phenomenon has multidimensional impacts on the environment and human wellbeing. In an agrarian economy, its impacts are more long lasting and deep rooted. Since the advent of the world, climate has passed through various changes over the time. The process of industrialization of the world is responsible for climate change. England’s industrial revolution and industrial development in U.S.A on gigantic scale were responsible for bringing out climate problems which are now being encountered by the less developed economies. The effects are more evident in agrarian based economies like Pakistan. The main object of this study is to quantify the impacts of climate in Pakistan to have better understanding of climate issues. We took data of cotton production in Sind Pakistan from 2001 to 2012. We applied auto regressive distributed lag model in E-views. We analyzed the impact of rainfall and temperature on cotton production. The result comes out that increase in temperature increase the cotton production and its significance. And temperature increase in previous year also affects the cotton production and significance. But increased in temperature of year before previous year increases the output but it is insignificant. Same as increase in rainfall of current year decreases the output and is insignificant. But increase in previous year rainfall increases the output and significance. Increase in rainfall year before previous year decreases the output and is insignificant. And increase in rainfall and temperature overall decreases the output of production of cotton. The study has confirmed that change in climate has significant impact on cotton production.
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