Impact of Floods 2010 on Household Welfare in Northern Sindh Districts: Estimation of Household Consumption of Selected Food Items

Abstract

The floods 2010 is being deemed as one among the biggest natural disasters in the human history given the magnitude of losses to human lives and the economic damages to the livelihoods of the people affected. This flood affected 22 million people directly and indirectly inundating 20% of the area of Pakistan. The effect of floods was deeper and colossal in the several districts of Sindh province. These districts include Kandhkot-Kashmore, Jacobabad, Shikarpur and Qamber-Shahdadkot, Dadu and Thatta. Present study has estimated welfare loss to the households of the flood affected districts of Kandhkot-Kashmore, Jacobabad, Shikarpur and Qamber-Shahdadkot as the worst affected districts in the province. Here fall in the household budget shares allocated to the selected food items has been taken as the proxy for the welfare loss. Marshallian household demand equations of the selected food items have been estimated using Ordinary Least Squares Method. Official sources of international and national organizations and institutions have been intensively exhausted for time series data from 2004 to 2013. The estimated welfare loss has been as high as the -22% in the budget share in 2010 in the selected districts. Further, the loss in budget shares has been reliable and valid as the previous literature suggests that there was a rise in the food prices by 17% approximately during the same time in the flood affected areas.