THE UNITED STATES MILITARY POSTURE IN ASIA-PACIFIC AND ENHANCED SECURITY DILEMMA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47781/asia-pacific.vol42.Iss42.7401Keywords:
Asia-Pacific, AirSea Battle, US military posture, Nuclear non-proliferation, Security dilemmaAbstract
This paper argues that United States is adhering to an offensive military posture of ‘AirSea Battle’ (ASB) concept in the backdrop of military, political, and economic rise of China. It aims to strengthen extended deterrence and deter China to initiate limited conflict. However, this paper posits that such military posture is resulting into an intense security dilemma and triggering an arms race between the United States and China. Such outcome may not be compatible with existing grand strategy of the United States, which emphasise economic interdependence and nuclear non-proliferation. This paper recommends that the United State needs to change its existing military posture and reassure China that the United State would not threaten its vital interests.
References
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Beckley, M. (2017). The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia: How China’s Neighbors Can Check Chinese Naval Expansion. International Security, 42(2), 78–119. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/ISEC_a_00294
Biddle, S., & Oelrich, I. (2016). Future Warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese Antiaccess/Area Denial, U.S. AirSea Battle, and Command of the Commons in East Asia. International Security, 41(1), 7–48. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00249
Brooks, S. G., Ikenberry, G. J., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2013). Don’t Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment. International Security, 37(3), 7–51. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00107
Castillo, J. J., & Downes, A. B. (2023). Loyalty, hedging, or exit: How weaker alliance partners respond to the rise of new threats. Journal of Strategic Studies, 46(2), 227–268. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/01402390.2020.1797690
Christensen, T. J. (2012). The Meaning of the Nuclear Evolution: China’s Strategic Modernization and US-China Security Relations. Journal of Strategic Studies, 35(4), 447–487. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2012.714710
Clary, C., & Narang, V. (2019). India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities. International Security, 43(3), 7–52. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00340
Cunningham, F. S. (2020). The Maritime Rung on the Escalation Ladder: Naval Blockades in a US-China Conflict. Security Studies, 29(4), 730–768. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09636412.2020.1811462
Cunningham, F. S., & Fravel, M. T. (2015). Assuring Assured Retaliation: China’s Nuclear Posture and U.S.-China Strategic Stability. International Security, 40(2), 7–50. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/ISEC_a_00215
Department of Defense. (2018). 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America. https://www.hsdl.org/ ?view&did=807329
Fravel, M. T., & Glaser, C. L. (2022). How Much Risk Should the United States Run in the South China Sea? International Security, 47(2), 88–134. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00443
Friedman, J. A. (2022). Is US grand strategy dead? The political foundations of deep engagement after Donald Trump. International Affairs, 98(4), 1289–1305. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/ia/iiac112
Frühling, S., & O’Neil, A. (2022). Alliances and Nuclear Risk: Strengthening US Extended Deterrence. Survival, 64(1), 77–98. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2032969
Ganguly, S. (2019). Introduction to the special section: The shifting South Asian nuclear landscape. The Nonproliferation Review, 26(5–6), 403–406. https://doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2019. 1695861
Gavin, F. J. (2015). Strategies of Inhibition: U.S. Grand Strategy, the Nuclear Revolution, and Nonproliferation. International Security, 40(1), 9–46. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00205
Gholz, E., Press, D. G., & Sapolsky, H. M. (1997). Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation. International Security, 21(4), 5–48. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/isec.21.4.5
Glaser, C. L. (1996). Realists as optimists: Cooperation as self?help. Security Studies, 5(3), 122–163. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09636419608429278
Glaser, C. L. (2015). A U.S.-China Grand Bargain? The Hard Choice between Military Competition and Accommodation. International Security, 39(4), 49–90. https://doi.org/10.1162 /ISEC_a_00199
Goldstein, A. (2013). First Things First: The Pressing Danger of Crisis Instability in U.S.-China Relations. International Security, 37(4), 49–89. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00114
Han, Z., & Paul, T. V. (2020). China’s Rise and Balance of Power Politics. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 13(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poz018
Hiim, H. S., Fravel, M. T., & Trøan, M. L. (2023). The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China’s Changing Nuclear Posture. International Security, 47(4), 147–187. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/isec_a_00457
Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the Security Dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167–214. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009958
Jervis, R. (1979). Deterrence Theory Revisited. World Politics, 31(2), 289–324. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009945
Jervis, R. (1988). The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons: A Comment. International Security, 13(2), 80. https://doi.org/ 10.2307/2538972
Jervis, R. (1989). The meaning of the nuclear revolution: Statecraft and the prospect of Armageddon. Cornell University Press.
Jervis, R. (1999). Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation: Understanding the Debate. https://doi.org/10.7916/D8VM4B30
Labs, E. J. (1992). Do Weak States Bandwagon? Security Studies, 1(3), 383–416. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419209347476
Ladwig Iii, W. C. (2015). Indian Military Modernization and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia. Journal of Strategic Studies, 38(5), 729–772. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2015. 1014473
Ladwig, W. C. (2008). A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army’s New Limited War Doctrine. International Security, 32(3), 158–190. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2008.32.3.158
Leeds, B. A. (2003). Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties. International Organization, 57(4), 801–827. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818303574057
Liff, A. P., & Ikenberry, G. J. (2014). Racing toward Tragedy?: China’s Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma. International Security, 39(2), 52–91. https://doi.org /10.1162/ISEC_a_00176
Lim, D. J., & Cooper, Z. (2015). Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia. Security Studies, 24(4), 696–727. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1103130
Lynn-Jones, S. M. (1995). Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics. Security Studies, 4(4), 660–691. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09636419509347600
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics (Updated edition). W.W. Norton & Company.
Medeiros, E. S. (2019). The Changing Fundamentals of US-China Relations. The Washington Quarterly, 42(3), 93–119. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2019.1666355
Narang, V. (2014). Nuclear strategy in the modern era: Regional powers and international conflict. Princeton University Press.
Narang, V. (2013). What Does It Take to Deter? Regional Power Nuclear Postures and International Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 57(3), 478–508. https://doi.org/10.1177/ 0022002712448909
Narang, V. (2010). Posturing for Peace? Pakistan’s Nuclear Postures and South Asian Stability. International Security, 34(3), 38–78. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2010.34.3.38
Porter, P. (2018). Why America’s Grand Strategy Has Not Changed: Power, Habit, and the U.S. Foreign Policy Establishment. International Security, 42(4), 9–46. https://doi.org/10.1162 /isec_a_00311
Posen, B. (1986). The sources of military doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the world wars (First printing, Cornell paperbacks). Cornell University Press.
Riqiang, W. (2022). Assessing China-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation. International Security, 46(3), 128–162. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00428
Sauer, T. (2022). US Extended Nuclear Deterrence in Europe and East Asia: A Comparative Analysis. Asian Affairs, 53(3), 500–519. https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2022.2074731
Shambaugh, D. (2018). U.S.-China Rivalry in Southeast Asia: Power Shift or Competitive Coexistence? International Security, 42(4), 85–127. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00314
Talmadge, C. (2017). Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States. International Security, 41(4), 50–92. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00274
Tang, S. (2008). Fear in International Politics: Two Positions. International Studies Review, 10(3), 451–471. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/j.1468-2486.2008.00800.x
Tang, S. (2009). The Security Dilemma: A Conceptual Analysis. Security Studies, 18(3), 587–623. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09636410903133050
Tang, S. (2010). A Theory of Security Strategy for Our Time. Palgrave Macmillan US. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230106048
Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3. https://doi.org/10.2307 /2538540
Waltz, K. N. (1990). Nuclear Myths and Political Realities. American Political Science Review, 84(3), 730–745. https://doi.org/10.2307 /1962764
Waltz, K. N. (2010). Theory of international politics (Reiss). Waveland Press.
Beckley, M. (2015). The Myth of Entangling Alliances: Reassessing the Security Risks of U.S. Defense Pacts. International Security, 39(4), 7–48. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00197
Beckley, M. (2017). The Emerging Military Balance in East Asia: How China’s Neighbors Can Check Chinese Naval Expansion. International Security, 42(2), 78–119. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/ISEC_a_00294
Biddle, S., & Oelrich, I. (2016). Future Warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese Antiaccess/Area Denial, U.S. AirSea Battle, and Command of the Commons in East Asia. International Security, 41(1), 7–48. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00249
Brooks, S. G., Ikenberry, G. J., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2013). Don’t Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment. International Security, 37(3), 7–51. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00107
Castillo, J. J., & Downes, A. B. (2023). Loyalty, hedging, or exit: How weaker alliance partners respond to the rise of new threats. Journal of Strategic Studies, 46(2), 227–268. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/01402390.2020.1797690
Christensen, T. J. (2012). The Meaning of the Nuclear Evolution: China’s Strategic Modernization and US-China Security Relations. Journal of Strategic Studies, 35(4), 447–487. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2012.714710
Clary, C., & Narang, V. (2019). India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities. International Security, 43(3), 7–52. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00340
Cunningham, F. S. (2020). The Maritime Rung on the Escalation Ladder: Naval Blockades in a US-China Conflict. Security Studies, 29(4), 730–768. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09636412.2020.1811462
Cunningham, F. S., & Fravel, M. T. (2015). Assuring Assured Retaliation: China’s Nuclear Posture and U.S.-China Strategic Stability. International Security, 40(2), 7–50. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/ISEC_a_00215
Department of Defense. (2018). 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America. https://www.hsdl.org/ ?view&did=807329
Fravel, M. T., & Glaser, C. L. (2022). How Much Risk Should the United States Run in the South China Sea? International Security, 47(2), 88–134. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00443
Friedman, J. A. (2022). Is US grand strategy dead? The political foundations of deep engagement after Donald Trump. International Affairs, 98(4), 1289–1305. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/ia/iiac112
Frühling, S., & O’Neil, A. (2022). Alliances and Nuclear Risk: Strengthening US Extended Deterrence. Survival, 64(1), 77–98. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2032969
Ganguly, S. (2019). Introduction to the special section: The shifting South Asian nuclear landscape. The Nonproliferation Review, 26(5–6), 403–406. https://doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2019. 1695861
Gavin, F. J. (2015). Strategies of Inhibition: U.S. Grand Strategy, the Nuclear Revolution, and Nonproliferation. International Security, 40(1), 9–46. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00205
Gholz, E., Press, D. G., & Sapolsky, H. M. (1997). Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation. International Security, 21(4), 5–48. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/isec.21.4.5
Glaser, C. L. (1996). Realists as optimists: Cooperation as self?help. Security Studies, 5(3), 122–163. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09636419608429278
Glaser, C. L. (2015). A U.S.-China Grand Bargain? The Hard Choice between Military Competition and Accommodation. International Security, 39(4), 49–90. https://doi.org/10.1162 /ISEC_a_00199
Goldstein, A. (2013). First Things First: The Pressing Danger of Crisis Instability in U.S.-China Relations. International Security, 37(4), 49–89. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00114
Han, Z., & Paul, T. V. (2020). China’s Rise and Balance of Power Politics. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 13(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poz018
Hiim, H. S., Fravel, M. T., & Trøan, M. L. (2023). The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China’s Changing Nuclear Posture. International Security, 47(4), 147–187. https://doi.org/ 10.1162/isec_a_00457
Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the Security Dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167–214. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009958
Jervis, R. (1979). Deterrence Theory Revisited. World Politics, 31(2), 289–324. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009945
Jervis, R. (1988). The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons: A Comment. International Security, 13(2), 80. https://doi.org/ 10.2307/2538972
Jervis, R. (1989). The meaning of the nuclear revolution: Statecraft and the prospect of Armageddon. Cornell University Press.
Jervis, R. (1999). Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation: Understanding the Debate. https://doi.org/10.7916/D8VM4B30
Labs, E. J. (1992). Do Weak States Bandwagon? Security Studies, 1(3), 383–416. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419209347476
Ladwig Iii, W. C. (2015). Indian Military Modernization and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia. Journal of Strategic Studies, 38(5), 729–772. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2015. 1014473
Ladwig, W. C. (2008). A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army’s New Limited War Doctrine. International Security, 32(3), 158–190. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2008.32.3.158
Leeds, B. A. (2003). Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties. International Organization, 57(4), 801–827. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818303574057
Liff, A. P., & Ikenberry, G. J. (2014). Racing toward Tragedy?: China’s Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma. International Security, 39(2), 52–91. https://doi.org /10.1162/ISEC_a_00176
Lim, D. J., & Cooper, Z. (2015). Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia. Security Studies, 24(4), 696–727. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1103130
Lynn-Jones, S. M. (1995). Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics. Security Studies, 4(4), 660–691. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09636419509347600
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics (Updated edition). W.W. Norton & Company.
Medeiros, E. S. (2019). The Changing Fundamentals of US-China Relations. The Washington Quarterly, 42(3), 93–119. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2019.1666355
Narang, V. (2014). Nuclear strategy in the modern era: Regional powers and international conflict. Princeton University Press.
Narang, V. (2013). What Does It Take to Deter? Regional Power Nuclear Postures and International Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 57(3), 478–508. https://doi.org/10.1177/ 0022002712448909
Narang, V. (2010). Posturing for Peace? Pakistan’s Nuclear Postures and South Asian Stability. International Security, 34(3), 38–78. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2010.34.3.38
Porter, P. (2018). Why America’s Grand Strategy Has Not Changed: Power, Habit, and the U.S. Foreign Policy Establishment. International Security, 42(4), 9–46. https://doi.org/10.1162 /isec_a_00311
Posen, B. (1986). The sources of military doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the world wars (First printing, Cornell paperbacks). Cornell University Press.
Riqiang, W. (2022). Assessing China-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation. International Security, 46(3), 128–162. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00428
Sauer, T. (2022). US Extended Nuclear Deterrence in Europe and East Asia: A Comparative Analysis. Asian Affairs, 53(3), 500–519. https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2022.2074731
Shambaugh, D. (2018). U.S.-China Rivalry in Southeast Asia: Power Shift or Competitive Coexistence? International Security, 42(4), 85–127. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00314
Talmadge, C. (2017). Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States. International Security, 41(4), 50–92. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00274
Tang, S. (2008). Fear in International Politics: Two Positions. International Studies Review, 10(3), 451–471. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/j.1468-2486.2008.00800.x
Tang, S. (2009). The Security Dilemma: A Conceptual Analysis. Security Studies, 18(3), 587–623. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 09636410903133050
Tang, S. (2010). A Theory of Security Strategy for Our Time. Palgrave Macmillan US. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230106048
Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3. https://doi.org/10.2307 /2538540
Waltz, K. N. (1990). Nuclear Myths and Political Realities. American Political Science Review, 84(3), 730–745. https://doi.org/10.2307 /1962764
Waltz, K. N. (2010). Theory of international politics (Reiss). Waveland Press.
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2024-12-31
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